Riding profile
Brent East
The question
Brent East: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrent East | 38.3% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +16.5 | 25.4% −10.1 | 19.3% −4.4 | 10.8% +2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Brent East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 15% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dawn Butler
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn Butler Elected | Labour | 19,370 | 51.2 | — |
| Jamila Robertson | Conservative | 6,323 | 16.7 | — |
| Nida Alfulaij | Green | 3,729 | 9.9 | — |
| Jonny Singh | Lib Dems | 2,635 | 7.0 | — |
| Zbigniew Kowalczyk | Reform UK | 2,024 | 5.3 | — |
| Aadil Shaikh | Other | 1,846 | 4.9 | — |
| James Mutimer | Other | 1,052 | 2.8 | — |
| Amin Moafi | Other | 654 | 1.7 | — |
| Jenner Folwell | Other | 169 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029