Riding profile
Brent East
The question
Brent East: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Brent East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 15% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dawn Butler
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrent East | 37.8% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 13.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +16.2 | 25.3% −10.0 | 11.8% +3.4 | 18.9% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn Butler Elected | Labour | 19,370 | 51.2 | — |
| Jamila Robertson | Conservative | 6,323 | 16.7 | — |
| Nida Alfulaij | Green | 3,729 | 9.9 | — |
| Jonny Singh | Lib Dems | 2,635 | 7.0 | — |
| Zbigniew Kowalczyk | Reform UK | 2,024 | 5.3 | — |
| Aadil Shaikh | Other | 1,846 | 4.9 | — |
| James Mutimer | Other | 1,052 | 2.8 | — |
| Amin Moafi | Other | 654 | 1.7 | — |
| Jenner Folwell | Other | 169 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029