Riding profile

Brent East

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Brent East: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Brent East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 15% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dawn Butler

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 37.8%
  • Reform UK 15.4%
  • Green 15.2%
  • Conservative 13.8%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Other 8.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereBrent East 37.8%15.4%15.2%13.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +16.2 25.3% −10.0 11.8% +3.4 18.9% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
34.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dawn Butler Elected Labour 19,370 51.2
Jamila Robertson Conservative 6,323 16.7
Nida Alfulaij Green 3,729 9.9
Jonny Singh Lib Dems 2,635 7.0
Zbigniew Kowalczyk Reform UK 2,024 5.3
Aadil Shaikh Other 1,846 4.9
James Mutimer Other 1,052 2.8
Amin Moafi Other 654 1.7
Jenner Folwell Other 169 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
133,708
Median age
35
Employment rate
70.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029