Riding profile

Hammersmith and Chiswick

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hammersmith and Chiswick: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.1%
  • Conservative 17.0%
  • Reform UK 14.1%
  • Green 14.1%
  • Lib Dems 10.1%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereHammersmith and Chiswick 40.1%17.0%14.1%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +18.3 19.3% −2.3 25.4% −11.2 10.8% +3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hammersmith and Chiswick, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 17% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andy Slaughter

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
33.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andy Slaughter Elected Labour 24,073 52.3
Andrew Dinsmore Conservative 8,783 19.1
Naranee Ruthra-Rajan Green 4,468 9.7
Eraj Rostaqi Lib Dems 4,292 9.3
Louise Petano-Heathcote Reform UK 2,929 6.4
Bill Colegrave Other 821 1.8
Raj Gill Other 439 0.9
Scott Dore Other 216 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,739
Median age
36
Employment rate
76.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029