Riding profile
Richmond Park
The question
Richmond Park: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 31.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond Park | 49.9% | 18.3% | 13.7% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +38.6 | 19.3% −1.0 | 25.4% −11.7 | 21.8% −13.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Richmond Park, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 50% vote share, against 18% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Olney
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Olney Elected | Lib Dems | 28,528 | 54.6 | — |
| Sara Gezdari | Conservative | 11,373 | 21.8 | — |
| Laura Coryton | Labour | 5,048 | 9.7 | — |
| Chas Warlow | Green | 3,416 | 6.5 | — |
| Michael Hearn | Reform UK | 3,258 | 6.2 | — |
| Chris French | Other | 349 | 0.7 | — |
| Richard Harrison | Other | 233 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029