Riding profile

Richmond Park

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Richmond Park: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Richmond Park, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 46% vote share, against 18% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Olney

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 46.3%
  • Conservative 18.0%
  • Reform UK 14.1%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereRichmond Park 46.3%18.0%14.1%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +34.6 18.9% −0.9 25.3% −11.3 21.7% −12.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
32.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Olney Elected Lib Dems 28,528 54.6
Sara Gezdari Conservative 11,373 21.8
Laura Coryton Labour 5,048 9.7
Chas Warlow Green 3,416 6.5
Michael Hearn Reform UK 3,258 6.2
Chris French Other 349 0.7
Richard Harrison Other 233 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,617
Median age
41
Employment rate
77.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029