Riding profile

Twickenham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Twickenham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 52.3%
  • Reform UK 14.8%
  • Conservative 12.9%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereTwickenham 52.3%14.8%12.9%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +41.0 25.4% −10.6 19.3% −6.4 21.8% −12.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Twickenham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 52% vote share, against 15% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Munira Wilson

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
40.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Munira Wilson Elected Lib Dems 30,185 56.3
Jonathan Hulley Conservative 8,728 16.3
Tom Bruce Labour 6,693 12.5
Alex Starling Reform UK 4,092 7.6
Chantal Kerr-Sheppard Green 3,590 6.7
Umair Malik Other 347 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,054
Median age
42
Employment rate
74.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029