Riding profile
Ealing Southall
The question
Ealing Southall: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEaling Southall | 37.0% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 13.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +15.2 | 25.4% −9.8 | 5.0% +9.4 | 19.3% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ealing Southall, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 16% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Deirdre Costigan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deirdre Costigan Elected | Labour | 23,000 | 49.1 | — |
| Georgie Calle | Conservative | 7,207 | 15.4 | — |
| Neil Reynolds | Green | 4,356 | 9.3 | — |
| Darshan Singh Azad | Other | 4,237 | 9.1 | — |
| Tariq Mahmood | Lib Dems | 2,832 | 6.0 | — |
| Steve Chilcott | Reform UK | 2,585 | 5.5 | — |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 740 | 1.6 | — |
| Sangeet Kaur Bhail | Other | 557 | 1.2 | — |
| Peter Ward | Other | 475 | 1.0 | — |
| Joe Bhangu | Other | 319 | 0.7 | — |
| Jaginder Singh | Other | 295 | 0.6 | — |
| Pedro Da Conceicao | Other | 213 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029