Riding profile
Kingston and Surbiton
The question
Kingston and Surbiton: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston and Surbiton | 46.7% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +35.3 | 25.4% −8.0 | 19.3% −6.1 | 21.8% −12.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Kingston and Surbiton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 47% vote share, against 17% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ed Davey
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Davey Elected | Lib Dems | 25,870 | 51.1 | — |
| Helen Edward | Conservative | 8,635 | 17.0 | — |
| Eunice O'Dame | Labour | 6,561 | 12.9 | — |
| Mark Fox | Reform UK | 4,787 | 9.4 | — |
| Debojyoti Das | Green | 3,009 | 5.9 | — |
| Yvonne Tracey | Other | 1,177 | 2.3 | — |
| Ali Abdulla | Other | 395 | 0.8 | — |
| A.Gent Chinners | Other | 230 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029