Riding profile
Kingston and Surbiton
The question
Kingston and Surbiton: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Kingston and Surbiton, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 45% vote share, against 16% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ed Davey
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 28.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKingston and Surbiton | 45.3% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +33.6 | 25.3% −8.8 | 18.9% −5.5 | 21.7% −10.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Davey Elected | Lib Dems | 25,870 | 51.1 | — |
| Helen Edward | Conservative | 8,635 | 17.0 | — |
| Eunice O'Dame | Labour | 6,561 | 12.9 | — |
| Mark Fox | Reform UK | 4,787 | 9.4 | — |
| Debojyoti Das | Green | 3,009 | 5.9 | — |
| Yvonne Tracey | Other | 1,177 | 2.3 | — |
| Ali Abdulla | Other | 395 | 0.8 | — |
| A.Gent Chinners | Other | 230 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029