Riding profile
Epsom and Ewell
The question
Epsom and Ewell: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Epsom and Ewell, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Helen Maguire
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEpsom and Ewell | 34.0% | 24.7% | 20.8% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +22.3 | 18.9% +5.8 | 25.3% −4.5 | 21.7% −11.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Maguire Elected | Lib Dems | 20,674 | 37.9 | — |
| Mhairi Fraser | Conservative | 16,988 | 31.2 | — |
| Mark Todd | Labour | 8,325 | 15.3 | — |
| Mayuran Senthilnathan | Reform UK | 5,795 | 10.6 | — |
| Stephen McKenna | Green | 1,745 | 3.2 | — |
| Gina Miller | Other | 845 | 1.6 | — |
| Damon Young | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029