Riding profile
Epsom and Ewell
The question
Epsom and Ewell: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEpsom and Ewell | 36.0% | 24.7% | 19.1% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +24.6 | 19.3% +5.4 | 25.4% −6.3 | 21.8% −11.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Epsom and Ewell, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Helen Maguire
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Maguire Elected | Lib Dems | 20,674 | 37.9 | — |
| Mhairi Fraser | Conservative | 16,988 | 31.2 | — |
| Mark Todd | Labour | 8,325 | 15.3 | — |
| Mayuran Senthilnathan | Reform UK | 5,795 | 10.6 | — |
| Stephen McKenna | Green | 1,745 | 3.2 | — |
| Gina Miller | Other | 845 | 1.6 | — |
| Damon Young | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029