Riding profile

Wimbledon

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Wimbledon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Wimbledon, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 18% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Paul Kohler

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 39.1%
  • Conservative 18.3%
  • Labour 17.5%
  • Reform UK 14.1%
  • Green 8.5%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Labour Reform UK
HereWimbledon 39.1%18.3%17.5%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +27.5 18.9% −0.6 21.7% −4.2 25.3% −11.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
22.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul Kohler Elected Lib Dems 24,790 45.1
Danielle Dunfield-Prayero Conservative 12,180 22.1
Eleanor Stringer Labour 11,733 21.3
Ben Cronin Reform UK 3,221 5.9
Rachel Brooks Green 2,442 4.4
Aaron Mafi Other 341 0.6
Sarah Barber Other 129 0.2
Amy Lynch Other 80 0.1
Michael Watson Other 69 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,012
Median age
39
Employment rate
79.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029