Riding profile

Chelsea and Fulham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Chelsea and Fulham: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.9%
  • Labour 27.3%
  • Reform UK 16.4%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereChelsea and Fulham 33.9%27.3%16.4%10.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +14.6 21.8% +5.5 25.4% −9.0 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chelsea and Fulham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ben Coleman

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Coleman Elected Labour 18,556 39.4
Greg Hands Conservative 18,404 39.1
Blaise Baquiche Lib Dems 3,611 7.7
Anthony Goodwin Reform UK 3,144 6.7
Mona Crocker Green 2,798 5.9
Sabi Patwary Other 538 1.1
David Poulden Other 65 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
120,921
Median age
35
Employment rate
60.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029