Riding profile

Battersea

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Battersea: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.0%
  • Conservative 21.4%
  • Reform UK 13.4%
  • Green 12.9%
  • Lib Dems 10.4%
  • Other 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereBattersea 38.0%21.4%13.4%12.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.1 19.3% +2.0 25.4% −11.9 10.8% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Battersea, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marsha De Cordova

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
25.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marsha De Cordova Elected Labour 22,983 48.8 —
Tom Pridham Conservative 10,944 23.2 —
Francis Chubb Lib Dems 4,826 10.3 —
Joe Taylor Green 4,239 9.0 —
Barry Edwards Reform UK 2,825 6.0 —
Daniel Smith Other 499 1.1 —
Georgina Burford-Connole Other 401 0.8 —
Jake Thomas Other 216 0.5 —
Ed Dampier Other 149 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,258
Median age
32
Employment rate
84.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029