Riding profile

Vauxhall and Camberwell Green

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Vauxhall and Camberwell Green: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 43.2%
  • Green 24.9%
  • Reform UK 12.7%
  • Lib Dems 10.5%
  • Conservative 6.5%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereVauxhall and Camberwell Green 43.2%24.9%12.7%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +21.4 10.8% +14.1 25.4% −12.7 11.4% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Vauxhall and Camberwell Green, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Florence Eshalomi

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
40.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Florence Eshalomi Elected Labour 21,528 57.4 —
Catherine Dawkins Green 6,416 17.1 —
Chris French Lib Dems 4,549 12.1 —
Aarti Joshi Conservative 2,809 7.5 —
Mike King Reform UK 2,033 5.4 —
Andrew McRobbie Other 201 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,263
Median age
32
Employment rate
77.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029