Riding profile

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Bermondsey and Old Southwark: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Bermondsey and Old Southwark, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 23% for the Lib Dems, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Neil Coyle

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.3%
  • Lib Dems 22.6%
  • Reform UK 15.8%
  • Green 15.6%
  • Conservative 6.1%
  • Other 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Lib Dems Reform UK Green
HereBermondsey and Old Southwark 36.3%22.6%15.8%15.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +14.7 11.6% +11.0 25.3% −9.6 11.8% +3.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil Coyle Elected Labour 16,857 44.8
Rachel Bentley Lib Dems 9,070 24.1
Susan Hunter Green 4,477 11.9
Tony Sharp Reform UK 3,397 9.0
Jonathan Iliff Conservative 2,879 7.7
Piers Corbyn Other 403 1.1
Niko Omilana Other 273 0.7
Barry Duckett Other 247 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,422
Median age
32
Employment rate
75.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029