Riding profile

Poplar and Limehouse

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Poplar and Limehouse: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.5%
  • Green 19.6%
  • Reform UK 13.7%
  • Other 12.7%
  • Conservative 10.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HerePoplar and Limehouse 33.5%19.6%13.7%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.6 10.8% +8.8 25.4% −11.6 5.0% +7.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Poplar and Limehouse, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 20% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Apsana Begum

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Apsana Begum Elected Labour 18,535 43.0
Nathalie Bienfait Green 5,975 13.9
Freddie Downing Conservative 4,738 11.0
Ehtashamul Haque Other 4,554 10.6
Richard Flowers Lib Dems 4,189 9.7
Tony Glover Reform UK 3,403 7.9
Kamran Khan Other 1,463 3.4
Manny Lawal Other 194 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
146,385
Median age
30
Employment rate
73.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029