Riding profile

Stratford and Bow

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Stratford and Bow: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.6%
  • Green 20.9%
  • Other 18.7%
  • Reform UK 12.1%
  • Conservative 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Other Reform UK
HereStratford and Bow 34.6%20.9%18.7%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.8 10.8% +10.1 5.0% +13.7 25.4% −13.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stratford and Bow, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 21% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Uma Kumaran

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Uma Kumaran Elected Labour 19,145 44.1
Joe Hudson-Small Green 7,511 17.3
Halima Khan Other 3,274 7.5
Kane Blackwell Conservative 3,114 7.2
Nizam Ali Other 2,380 5.5
Jeff Evans Reform UK 2,093 4.8
Janey Little Lib Dems 1,926 4.4
Omar Faruk Other 1,826 4.2
Fiona Lali Other 1,791 4.1
Steve Hedley Other 375 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
132,023
Median age
31
Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029