Riding profile

Walthamstow

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Walthamstow: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 44.2%
  • Green 27.2%
  • Reform UK 10.6%
  • Other 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%
  • Conservative 4.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereWalthamstow 44.2%27.2%10.6%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +22.4 10.8% +16.4 25.4% −14.7 5.0% +3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Walthamstow, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ms Stella Creasy

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
39.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stella Creasy Elected Labour 27,172 59.5
Rosalind Rowlands Green 9,176 20.1
Sanjana Karnani Conservative 2,353 5.2
Martin Lonergan Reform UK 1,836 4.0
Rebecca Taylor Lib Dems 1,736 3.8
Imran Arshad Other 1,535 3.4
Mohammed Ashfaq Other 914 2.0
Nancy Taaffe Other 561 1.2
Dan Edelstyn Other 288 0.6
Ruth Rawlins Other 97 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
121,662
Median age
35
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029