Riding profile

Hackney North and Stoke Newington

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Hackney North and Stoke Newington: will Independent lose this seat to Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 43.4%
  • Green 29.6%
  • Reform UK 11.1%
  • Conservative 7.1%
  • Other 4.4%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereHackney North and Stoke Newington 43.4%29.6%11.1%7.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +21.6 10.8% +18.8 25.4% −14.3 19.3% −12.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hackney North and Stoke Newington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ms Diane Abbott

Sits with Independent

Since
1987-06-11
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Diane Abbott Elected Labour 24,355 59.5
Antoinette Fernandez Green 9,275 22.6
David Landau Conservative 3,457 8.4
Rebecca Jones Lib Dems 1,562 3.8
Deborah Cairns Reform UK 1,283 3.1
Ryan Ahmad Other 621 1.5
Knigel Knapp Other 224 0.6
Kombat Diva Other 182 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,638
Median age
32
Employment rate
78.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029