Riding profile

Islington South and Finsbury

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Islington South and Finsbury: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.6%
  • Green 25.3%
  • Reform UK 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 8.8%
  • Conservative 7.1%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereIslington South and Finsbury 40.6%25.3%13.7%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +18.8 10.8% +14.5 25.4% −11.7 11.4% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Islington South and Finsbury, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emily Thornberry

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emily Thornberry Elected Labour 22,946 53.7
Carne Ross Green 7,491 17.5
Terry Stacy Lib Dems 4,045 9.5
Imogen Sinclair Conservative 3,584 8.4
Max Nelson Reform UK 3,388 7.9
Andrew Parry Other 569 1.3
Lesley Woodburn Other 354 0.8
Ethan Saunders Other 215 0.5
Jake Painter Other 162 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
119,436
Median age
32
Employment rate
80.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029