Riding profile

Holborn and St Pancras

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Holborn and St Pancras: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.0%
  • Other 18.2%
  • Green 17.4%
  • Reform UK 14.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.2%
  • Conservative 5.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Other Green Reform UK
HereHolborn and St Pancras 38.0%18.2%17.4%14.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.2 5.0% +13.1 10.8% +6.6 25.4% −11.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Holborn and St Pancras, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 18% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Keir Starmer

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Keir Starmer Elected Labour 18,884 48.9
Andrew Feinstein Other 7,312 18.9
David Stansell Green 4,030 10.4
Mehreen Malik Conservative 2,776 7.2
David Roberts Reform UK 2,371 6.1
Charlie Clinton Lib Dems 2,236 5.8
Wais Islam Other 636 1.6
Nick the Incredible Flying Brick Other 162 0.4
John Poynton Other 75 0.2
Tom Scripps Other 61 0.2
Senthil Kumar Other 40 0.1
Bobby Smith Other 19 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,927
Median age
31
Employment rate
77.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029

Prediction market

Traders’ prices, not the Vote-Scope forecast. The two can disagree.

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