Riding profile

Islington North

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Islington North: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 43.4%
  • Labour 26.5%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Reform UK 9.1%
  • Conservative 6.0%
  • Lib Dems 3.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Green Reform UK
HereIslington North 43.4%26.5%11.3%9.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +38.4 21.8% +4.7 10.8% +0.5 25.4% −16.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Islington North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 43% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jeremy Corbyn

Sits with Independent

Since
1983-06-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Corbyn Elected Other 24,120 49.2 —
Praful Nargund Labour 16,873 34.4 —
Sheridan Kates Green 2,660 5.4 —
Karen Harries Conservative 1,950 4.0 —
Martyn Nelson Reform UK 1,710 3.5 —
Vikas Aggarwal Lib Dems 1,661 3.4 —
Paul Josling Other 32 0.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,100
Median age
33
Employment rate
74.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029