Riding profile

Tottenham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Tottenham: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Tottenham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr David Lammy

Sits with Labour

Since
2000-06-22
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.3%
  • Green 29.7%
  • Reform UK 11.7%
  • Other 7.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Conservative 4.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereTottenham 40.3%29.7%11.7%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +18.7 11.8% +17.9 25.3% −13.7 4.8% +2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
38.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Lammy Elected Labour 23,066 57.5
David Craig Green 7,632 19.0
Nandita Lal Other 2,348 5.8
Attic Rahman Conservative 2,320 5.8
Hari Prabu Lib Dems 1,928 4.8
Roger Gravett Reform UK 1,602 4.0
Jennifer Obaseki Other 659 1.6
Andrew Miles Other 306 0.8
Amelia Allao Other 224 0.6
Pamela Holmes Other 63 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
136,237
Median age
34
Employment rate
66.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029