Riding profile

Edmonton and Winchmore Hill

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Edmonton and Winchmore Hill: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Edmonton and Winchmore Hill, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kate Osamor

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.8%
  • Reform UK 17.8%
  • Conservative 15.8%
  • Green 14.7%
  • Lib Dems 8.2%
  • Other 6.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereEdmonton and Winchmore Hill 36.8%17.8%15.8%14.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +15.1 25.3% −7.5 18.9% −3.1 11.8% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
30.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kate Osamor Elected Labour 20,520 50.0
Zoe Huggins Conservative 7,888 19.2
Luke Balnave Green 3,681 9.0
Neville Watson Reform UK 3,501 8.5
Tim Martin Lib Dems 2,721 6.6
Khalid Sadur Other 1,700 4.1
Denise Headley Other 668 1.6
Yemi Awolola Other 366 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,161
Median age
37
Employment rate
76.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029