Riding profile
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
The question
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdmonton and Winchmore Hill | 36.7% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +14.9 | 25.4% −6.7 | 19.3% −2.7 | 10.8% +1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 19% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kate Osamor
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osamor Elected | Labour | 20,520 | 50.0 | — |
| Zoe Huggins | Conservative | 7,888 | 19.2 | — |
| Luke Balnave | Green | 3,681 | 9.0 | — |
| Neville Watson | Reform UK | 3,501 | 8.5 | — |
| Tim Martin | Lib Dems | 2,721 | 6.6 | — |
| Khalid Sadur | Other | 1,700 | 4.1 | — |
| Denise Headley | Other | 668 | 1.6 | — |
| Yemi Awolola | Other | 366 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029