Riding profile

Enfield North

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Enfield North: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.6%
  • Reform UK 21.3%
  • Conservative 17.7%
  • Green 11.7%
  • Other 7.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereEnfield North 35.6%21.3%17.7%11.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +13.8 25.4% −4.0 19.3% −1.6 10.8% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Enfield North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 21% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Feryal Clark

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Feryal Clark Elected Labour 21,368 49.1 —
Chris Dey Conservative 8,632 19.9 —
Stephen Bird Reform UK 5,146 11.8 —
Isobel Whittaker Green 3,713 8.5 —
Guy Russo Lib Dems 2,517 5.8 —
Ertan Karpazli Other 1,448 3.3 —
Aishat Anifowoshe Other 668 1.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
126,898
Median age
36
Employment rate
71.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029