Riding profile

Southgate and Wood Green

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Southgate and Wood Green: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 38.3%
  • Reform UK 16.4%
  • Conservative 15.5%
  • Green 15.1%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 5.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSouthgate and Wood Green 38.3%16.4%15.5%15.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.5 25.4% −9.0 19.3% −3.9 10.8% +4.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Southgate and Wood Green, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 16% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bambos Charalambous

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
33.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bambos Charalambous Elected Labour 23,337 51.1
Eric Sukumaran Conservative 8,037 17.6
Charith Gunawardena Green 5,607 12.3
Lauren Fulbright Lib Dems 3,925 8.6
Lucy O'Sullivan Reform UK 3,147 6.9
Geoff Moseley Other 833 1.8
Karl Vidol Other 785 1.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
127,370
Median age
38
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029