Riding profile

Chipping Barnet

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Chipping Barnet: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.2%
  • Labour 30.2%
  • Reform UK 18.5%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereChipping Barnet 32.2%30.2%18.5%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.9 21.8% +8.4 25.4% −6.9 10.8% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chipping Barnet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dan Tomlinson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Tomlinson Elected Labour 21,585 42.4 —
Theresa Villiers Conservative 18,671 36.7 —
Hamish Haddow Reform UK 3,986 7.8 —
David Farbey Green 3,442 6.8 —
Mark Durrant Lib Dems 2,614 5.1 —
Richard Hewison Other 379 0.8 —
Kay Lauer Other 182 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
112,341
Median age
41
Employment rate
78.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029