Riding profile
Chipping Barnet
The question
Chipping Barnet: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Chipping Barnet, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dan Tomlinson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChipping Barnet | 31.3% | 29.7% | 17.9% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.4 | 21.7% +8.0 | 25.3% −7.5 | 11.8% |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Tomlinson Elected | Labour | 21,585 | 42.4 | — |
| Theresa Villiers | Conservative | 18,671 | 36.7 | — |
| Hamish Haddow | Reform UK | 3,986 | 7.8 | — |
| David Farbey | Green | 3,442 | 6.8 | — |
| Mark Durrant | Lib Dems | 2,614 | 5.1 | — |
| Richard Hewison | Other | 379 | 0.8 | — |
| Kay Lauer | Other | 182 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029