Riding profile

Hertsmere

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Hertsmere: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 37.4%
  • Reform UK 26.0%
  • Labour 17.5%
  • Lib Dems 9.0%
  • Green 7.4%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereHertsmere 37.4%26.0%17.5%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +18.1 25.4% +0.6 21.8% −4.3 11.4% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hertsmere, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Oliver Dowden

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
16.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Oliver Dowden Elected Conservative 21,451 44.7 —
Josh Tapper Labour 13,459 28.0 —
Darren Selkus Reform UK 6,584 13.7 —
Emma Matanle Lib Dems 3,710 7.7 —
John Humphries Green 2,267 4.7 —
Ray Bolster Other 536 1.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,213
Median age
41
Employment rate
70.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029