Riding profile
Hertsmere
The question
Hertsmere: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Hertsmere, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Oliver Dowden
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHertsmere | 37.8% | 25.3% | 17.7% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +18.9 | 25.3% −0.1 | 21.7% −3.9 | 11.8% −2.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Dowden Elected | Conservative | 21,451 | 44.7 | — |
| Josh Tapper | Labour | 13,459 | 28.0 | — |
| Darren Selkus | Reform UK | 6,584 | 13.7 | — |
| Emma Matanle | Lib Dems | 3,710 | 7.7 | — |
| John Humphries | Green | 2,267 | 4.7 | — |
| Ray Bolster | Other | 536 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029