Riding profile
Welwyn Hatfield
The question
Welwyn Hatfield: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Welwyn Hatfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Andrew Lewin
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWelwyn Hatfield | 27.5% | 27.4% | 25.5% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +8.6 | 21.7% +5.7 | 25.3% +0.2 | 11.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lewin Elected | Labour | 19,877 | 41.0 | — |
| Grant Shapps | Conservative | 16,078 | 33.2 | — |
| Jack Aaron | Reform UK | 6,397 | 13.2 | — |
| John Munro | Lib Dems | 3,117 | 6.4 | — |
| Sarah Butcher | Green | 2,986 | 6.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029