Riding profile

Welwyn Hatfield

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Welwyn Hatfield: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Reform UK 26.2%
  • Labour 24.6%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereWelwyn Hatfield 27.3%26.2%24.6%11.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +8.0 25.4% +0.8 21.8% +2.8 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Welwyn Hatfield, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Andrew Lewin

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Lewin Elected Labour 19,877 41.0 —
Grant Shapps Conservative 16,078 33.2 —
Jack Aaron Reform UK 6,397 13.2 —
John Munro Lib Dems 3,117 6.4 —
Sarah Butcher Green 2,986 6.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
114,181
Median age
37
Employment rate
81.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029