Welwyn Hatfield
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 65%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welwyn Hatfield | 32.5% | 28.5% | 21.7% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+6.0 | 20.0%+8.4 | 22.3%−0.6 | 9.7%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,181 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 81.0% |
Current member
Andrew Lewin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 7.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lewin Elected | Labour | 19,877 | 41.0 |
| Grant Shapps | Conservative | 16,078 | 33.2 |
| Jack Aaron | Reform UK | 6,397 | 13.2 |
| John Munro | Lib Dems | 3,117 | 6.4 |
| Sarah Butcher | Green | 2,986 | 6.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stevenage Labour, toss-up
- Hertsmere Conservative, safe seat
- St Albans Lib Dems, safe seat
- North East Hertfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Chipping Barnet Labour, toss-up
- Southgate and Wood Green Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated