Riding profile
Stevenage
The question
Stevenage: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Stevenage, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kevin Bonavia
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStevenage | 29.4% | 26.5% | 21.5% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.1 | 21.7% +4.9 | 18.9% +2.6 | 11.8% −0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bonavia Elected | Labour | 17,698 | 41.4 | — |
| Alex Clarkson | Conservative | 11,080 | 25.9 | — |
| Peter Hopper | Reform UK | 7,667 | 17.9 | — |
| Lisa Nash | Lib Dems | 3,467 | 8.1 | — |
| Paul Dawson | Green | 2,655 | 6.2 | — |
| Joshua Smith | Other | 148 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029