Riding profile

Stevenage

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Stevenage: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.0%
  • Labour 24.8%
  • Conservative 21.5%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.5%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereStevenage 30.0%24.8%21.5%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.7 21.8% +3.0 19.3% +2.2 10.8% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stevenage, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kevin Bonavia

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kevin Bonavia Elected Labour 17,698 41.4 —
Alex Clarkson Conservative 11,080 25.9 —
Peter Hopper Reform UK 7,667 17.9 —
Lisa Nash Lib Dems 3,467 8.1 —
Paul Dawson Green 2,655 6.2 —
Joshua Smith Other 148 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,366
Median age
39
Employment rate
77.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029