Riding profile
Broxbourne
The question
Broxbourne: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBroxbourne | 32.6% | 30.3% | 18.9% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +7.3 | 19.3% +11.0 | 21.8% −3.0 | 11.4% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Broxbourne, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lewis Cocking
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cocking Elected | Conservative | 15,810 | 36.8 | — |
| Catherine Deakin | Labour | 12,952 | 30.1 | — |
| Tom Holdsworth | Reform UK | 8,782 | 20.4 | — |
| Nick Belfitt | Lib Dems | 2,688 | 6.3 | — |
| Owen Brett | Green | 2,461 | 5.7 | — |
| Martin Harvey | Other | 172 | 0.4 | — |
| Brett Frewin | Other | 87 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029