Broxbourne
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 83%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broxbourne | 32.2% | 29.0% | 22.6% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+12.1 | 22.3%+6.7 | 26.5%−3.9 | 9.7%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,478 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 83.8% |
Current member
Lewis Cocking · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cocking Elected | Conservative | 15,810 | 36.8 |
| Catherine Deakin | Labour | 12,952 | 30.2 |
| Tom Holdsworth | Reform UK | 8,782 | 20.5 |
| Nick Belfitt | Lib Dems | 2,688 | 6.3 |
| Owen Brett | Green | 2,461 | 5.7 |
| Martin Harvey | Other | 172 | 0.4 |
| Brett Frewin | Other | 87 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hertford and Stortford Labour, toss-up
- Epping Forest Conservative, safe seat
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
- North East Hertfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Edmonton and Winchmore Hill Labour, safe seat
- Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated