Riding profile
Broxbourne
The question
Broxbourne: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Broxbourne, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lewis Cocking
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBroxbourne | 31.1% | 30.5% | 18.7% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.3 | 25.3% +5.2 | 21.7% −3.0 | 11.8% −1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cocking Elected | Conservative | 15,810 | 36.8 | — |
| Catherine Deakin | Labour | 12,952 | 30.1 | — |
| Tom Holdsworth | Reform UK | 8,782 | 20.4 | — |
| Nick Belfitt | Lib Dems | 2,688 | 6.3 | — |
| Owen Brett | Green | 2,461 | 5.7 | — |
| Martin Harvey | Other | 172 | 0.4 | — |
| Brett Frewin | Other | 87 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029