Riding profile
Hertford and Stortford
The question
Hertford and Stortford: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hertford and Stortford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 25% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Josh Dean
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHertford and Stortford | 25.4% | 25.1% | 24.2% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +6.5 | 25.3% −0.2 | 21.7% +2.5 | 11.8% +2.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Robert Abraham Dean Elected | Labour | 20,808 | 38.5 | — |
| Julie Marson | Conservative | 16,060 | 29.7 | — |
| John Burmicz | Reform UK | 8,325 | 15.4 | — |
| Nick Cox | Green | 4,373 | 8.1 | — |
| Helen Rosemary Campbell | Lib Dems | 4,167 | 7.7 | — |
| Jane Fowler | Other | 139 | 0.3 | — |
| Barry Hensall | Other | 137 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029