Riding profile
Hertford and Stortford
The question
Hertford and Stortford: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHertford and Stortford | 28.2% | 25.8% | 22.0% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.8 | 19.3% +6.5 | 21.8% +0.2 | 10.8% +0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Hertford and Stortford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Josh Dean
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Robert Abraham Dean Elected | Labour | 20,808 | 38.5 | — |
| Julie Marson | Conservative | 16,060 | 29.7 | — |
| John Burmicz | Reform UK | 8,325 | 15.4 | — |
| Nick Cox | Green | 4,373 | 8.1 | — |
| Helen Rosemary Campbell | Lib Dems | 4,167 | 7.7 | — |
| Jane Fowler | Other | 139 | 0.3 | — |
| Barry Hensall | Other | 137 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029