Riding profile

Chingford and Woodford Green

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Chingford and Woodford Green: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.7%
  • Other 21.9%
  • Reform UK 18.9%
  • Labour 18.4%
  • Green 6.1%
  • Lib Dems 3.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Other Reform UK Labour
HereChingford and Woodford Green 30.7%21.9%18.9%18.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.4 5.0% +16.9 25.4% −6.5 21.8% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chingford and Woodford Green, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Iain Duncan Smith

Sits with Conservative

Since
1992-04-09
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Iain Duncan Smith Elected Conservative 17,281 35.6
Shama Tatler Labour 12,524 25.8
Faiza Shaheen Other 12,445 25.6
Paul Luggeri Reform UK 3,653 7.5
Chris Brody Green 1,334 2.8
Josh Hadley Lib Dems 1,275 2.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,091
Median age
40
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029