Riding profile
Chingford and Woodford Green
The question
Chingford and Woodford Green: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Other | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChingford and Woodford Green | 30.7% | 21.9% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +11.4 | 5.0% +16.9 | 25.4% −6.5 | 21.8% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chingford and Woodford Green, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 22% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Iain Duncan Smith
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iain Duncan Smith Elected | Conservative | 17,281 | 35.6 | — |
| Shama Tatler | Labour | 12,524 | 25.8 | — |
| Faiza Shaheen | Other | 12,445 | 25.6 | — |
| Paul Luggeri | Reform UK | 3,653 | 7.5 | — |
| Chris Brody | Green | 1,334 | 2.8 | — |
| Josh Hadley | Lib Dems | 1,275 | 2.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029