Riding profile

Ilford South

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Ilford South: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 29.5%
  • Other 23.7%
  • Reform UK 15.7%
  • Green 13.6%
  • Conservative 12.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Other Reform UK Green
HereIlford South 29.5%23.7%15.7%13.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +7.7 5.0% +18.7 25.4% −9.7 10.8% +2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ilford South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for another party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jas Athwal

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jas Athwal Elected Labour 16,537 40.2
Noor Begum Other 9,643 23.4
Sayeed Syduzzaman Conservative 6,142 14.9
Syed Siddiqi Green 3,437 8.3
Raj Forhad Reform UK 2,329 5.7
Golam Tipu Other 1,366 3.3
Richard Clare Lib Dems 1,340 3.3
Andy Walker Other 376 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
131,400
Median age
33
Employment rate
72.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029