Riding profile

East Ham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

East Ham: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

East Ham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 19% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Stephen Timms

Sits with Labour

Since
1994-06-09
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.7%
  • Green 18.8%
  • Other 16.0%
  • Reform UK 13.8%
  • Conservative 8.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Other Reform UK
HereEast Ham 36.7%18.8%16.0%13.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +15.0 11.8% +7.0 4.8% +11.2 25.3% −11.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephen Timms Elected Labour 19,570 51.6
Tahir Mirza Other 6,707 17.7
Rosie Pearce Green 4,226 11.2
Maria Higson Conservative 3,876 10.2
Daniel Oxley Reform UK 1,340 3.5
Hillary Briffa Lib Dems 1,210 3.2
Anand Kumar Sundar Other 578 1.5
Sathish Mohan Ramadoss Other 385 1.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
132,906
Median age
32
Employment rate
59.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029