Riding profile

Ilford North

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Ilford North: will Labour lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 31.4%
  • Labour 23.1%
  • Conservative 17.7%
  • Reform UK 15.5%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Conservative Reform UK
HereIlford North 31.4%23.1%17.7%15.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +26.4 21.8% +1.3 19.3% −1.6 25.4% −9.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ilford North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Wes Streeting

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Wes Streeting Elected Labour 15,647 33.4
Leanne Mohamad Other 15,119 32.2
Kaz Rizvi Conservative 9,619 20.5
Alex Wilson Reform UK 3,621 7.7
Rachel Collinson Green 1,794 3.8
Fraser Coppin Lib Dems 1,088 2.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
120,092
Median age
36
Employment rate
69.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029