Riding profile
Leyton and Wanstead
The question
Leyton and Wanstead: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLeyton and Wanstead | 35.3% | 22.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +13.4 | 10.8% +12.1 | 25.4% −12.3 | 5.0% +7.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Leyton and Wanstead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Calvin Bailey
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bailey Elected | Labour | 20,755 | 47.5 | — |
| Charlotte Lafferty | Green | 6,791 | 15.5 | — |
| Gloria Croxall | Conservative | 4,846 | 11.1 | — |
| Shanell Johnson | Other | 4,173 | 9.5 | — |
| Tara Copeland | Lib Dems | 2,815 | 6.4 | — |
| David Sandground | Reform UK | 2,475 | 5.7 | — |
| Mahtab Aziz | Other | 1,633 | 3.7 | — |
| Simon Bezer | Other | 244 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029