Riding profile

Leyton and Wanstead

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Leyton and Wanstead: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Leyton and Wanstead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for the Green Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Calvin Bailey

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.0%
  • Green 27.1%
  • Reform UK 13.3%
  • Other 10.9%
  • Conservative 7.8%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereLeyton and Wanstead 33.0%27.1%13.3%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +11.3 11.8% +15.3 25.3% −12.0 4.8% +6.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Calvin Bailey Elected Labour 20,755 47.5
Charlotte Lafferty Green 6,791 15.5
Gloria Croxall Conservative 4,846 11.1
Shanell Johnson Other 4,173 9.5
Tara Copeland Lib Dems 2,815 6.4
David Sandground Reform UK 2,475 5.7
Mahtab Aziz Other 1,633 3.7
Simon Bezer Other 244 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,828
Median age
36
Employment rate
70.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029