Riding profile

Leyton and Wanstead

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Leyton and Wanstead: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 35.3%
  • Green 22.9%
  • Reform UK 13.1%
  • Other 12.5%
  • Conservative 8.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereLeyton and Wanstead 35.3%22.9%13.1%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +13.4 10.8% +12.1 25.4% −12.3 5.0% +7.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leyton and Wanstead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Calvin Bailey

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Calvin Bailey Elected Labour 20,755 47.5
Charlotte Lafferty Green 6,791 15.5
Gloria Croxall Conservative 4,846 11.1
Shanell Johnson Other 4,173 9.5
Tara Copeland Lib Dems 2,815 6.4
David Sandground Reform UK 2,475 5.7
Mahtab Aziz Other 1,633 3.7
Simon Bezer Other 244 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
115,828
Median age
36
Employment rate
70.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029