Riding profile
Barking
The question
Barking: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarking | 31.3% | 22.2% | 18.2% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.5 | 25.4% −3.1 | 10.8% +7.4 | 5.0% +7.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Barking, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nesil Caliskan
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesil Caliskan Elected | Labour | 16,227 | 44.5 | — |
| Clive Peacock | Reform UK | 5,173 | 14.2 | — |
| Simon Anthony | Green | 4,988 | 13.7 | — |
| Julie Redmond | Conservative | 4,294 | 11.8 | — |
| Muhammad Asim | Other | 3,578 | 9.8 | — |
| Charley Hasted | Lib Dems | 1,015 | 2.8 | — |
| Dee Dias | Other | 753 | 2.1 | — |
| Lucy Baiye-Gaman | Other | 449 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029