Riding profile
Barking
The question
Barking: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Barking, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Nesil Caliskan
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBarking | 30.1% | 23.9% | 19.7% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.5 | 25.3% −1.5 | 11.8% +7.9 | 4.8% +6.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesil Caliskan Elected | Labour | 16,227 | 44.5 | — |
| Clive Peacock | Reform UK | 5,173 | 14.2 | — |
| Simon Anthony | Green | 4,988 | 13.7 | — |
| Julie Redmond | Conservative | 4,294 | 11.8 | — |
| Muhammad Asim | Other | 3,578 | 9.8 | — |
| Charley Hasted | Lib Dems | 1,015 | 2.8 | — |
| Dee Dias | Other | 753 | 2.1 | — |
| Lucy Baiye-Gaman | Other | 449 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029