Riding profile
Erith and Thamesmead
The question
Erith and Thamesmead: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Erith and Thamesmead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ms Abena Oppong-Asare
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereErith and Thamesmead | 39.9% | 22.6% | 14.5% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +18.3 | 25.3% −2.7 | 11.8% +2.6 | 18.9% −7.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abena Oppong-Asare Elected | Labour | 22,246 | 55.1 | — |
| Michael Pastor | Reform UK | 5,944 | 14.7 | — |
| Richard Mark | Conservative | 5,564 | 13.8 | — |
| Sarah Barry | Green | 3,482 | 8.6 | — |
| Pierce Chalmers | Lib Dems | 1,872 | 4.6 | — |
| Mohammed Abu Shahed | Other | 1,071 | 2.6 | — |
| Diana Diamond | Other | 200 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029