Riding profile

Erith and Thamesmead

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Erith and Thamesmead: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.2%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Conservative 12.5%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 4.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereErith and Thamesmead 40.2%23.9%12.5%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +18.4 25.4% −1.4 19.3% −6.8 10.8% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Erith and Thamesmead, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ms Abena Oppong-Asare

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
40.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Abena Oppong-Asare Elected Labour 22,246 55.1 —
Michael Pastor Reform UK 5,944 14.7 —
Richard Mark Conservative 5,564 13.8 —
Sarah Barry Green 3,482 8.6 —
Pierce Chalmers Lib Dems 1,872 4.6 —
Mohammed Abu Shahed Other 1,071 2.6 —
Diana Diamond Other 200 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
134,250
Median age
35
Employment rate
72.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029