Riding profile
Bexleyheath and Crayford
The question
Bexleyheath and Crayford: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Bexleyheath and Crayford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Daniel Francis
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.0
- P(close race)
- 38%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBexleyheath and Crayford | 31.6% | 26.5% | 23.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.3 | 18.9% +7.6 | 21.7% +2.1 | 11.8% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Francis Elected | Labour | 15,717 | 36.2 | — |
| Mark Brooks | Conservative | 13,603 | 31.3 | — |
| Tom Bright | Reform UK | 9,861 | 22.7 | — |
| David McBride | Lib Dems | 2,204 | 5.1 | — |
| George Edgar | Green | 2,076 | 4.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029