Riding profile
Bexleyheath and Crayford
The question
Bexleyheath and Crayford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBexleyheath and Crayford | 34.0% | 26.9% | 22.6% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +8.6 | 19.3% +7.5 | 21.8% +0.8 | 10.8% −3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bexleyheath and Crayford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Daniel Francis
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Francis Elected | Labour | 15,717 | 36.2 | — |
| Mark Brooks | Conservative | 13,603 | 31.3 | — |
| Tom Bright | Reform UK | 9,861 | 22.7 | — |
| David McBride | Lib Dems | 2,204 | 5.1 | — |
| George Edgar | Green | 2,076 | 4.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029