Bexleyheath and Crayford
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | 30.0% | 28.5% | 27.7% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+7.7 | 26.5%+2.1 | 20.0%+7.6 | 9.7%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,481 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Daniel Francis · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Francis Elected | Labour | 15,717 | 36.2 |
| Mark Brooks | Conservative | 13,603 | 31.3 |
| Tom Bright | Reform UK | 9,861 | 22.7 |
| David McBride | Lib Dems | 2,204 | 5.1 |
| George Edgar | Green | 2,076 | 4.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
- Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative, competitive
- Thurrock Labour, toss-up
- Hornchurch and Upminster Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated