Riding profile

Thurrock

UK constituency — England · Urban · east of england

The question

Thurrock: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.3%
  • Labour 26.0%
  • Conservative 18.9%
  • Green 8.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereThurrock 36.3%26.0%18.9%8.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +11.0 21.8% +4.2 19.3% −0.4 10.8% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Thurrock, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jen Craft

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jen Craft Elected Labour 16,050 42.7 —
Sophie Preston-Hall Reform UK 9,576 25.5 —
Jacqueline Doyle-Price Conservative 8,009 21.3 —
Eugene McCarthy Green 1,632 4.3 —
Michael Bukola Lib Dems 1,157 3.1 —
Yousaff Khan Other 691 1.8 —
Nimal Raj Other 443 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
121,226
Median age
35
Employment rate
71.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029