Riding profile
Thurrock
The question
Thurrock: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Thurrock, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jen Craft
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThurrock | 36.0% | 26.4% | 18.1% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +10.7 | 21.7% +4.8 | 18.9% −0.8 | 11.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jen Craft Elected | Labour | 16,050 | 42.7 | — |
| Sophie Preston-Hall | Reform UK | 9,576 | 25.5 | — |
| Jacqueline Doyle-Price | Conservative | 8,009 | 21.3 | — |
| Eugene McCarthy | Green | 1,632 | 4.3 | — |
| Michael Bukola | Lib Dems | 1,157 | 3.1 | — |
| Yousaff Khan | Other | 691 | 1.8 | — |
| Nimal Raj | Other | 443 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029