Riding profile
Hornchurch and Upminster
The question
Hornchurch and Upminster: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Hornchurch and Upminster, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Julia Lopez
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHornchurch and Upminster | 35.0% | 26.1% | 15.0% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.6 | 18.9% +7.2 | 21.7% −6.6 | 11.6% +0.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Lopez Elected | Conservative | 15,260 | 32.5 | — |
| Nicholas Palmer | Reform UK | 13,317 | 28.4 | — |
| Sunny Brar | Labour | 12,939 | 27.6 | — |
| Melanie Collins | Green | 2,620 | 5.6 | — |
| Ian Sanderson | Lib Dems | 2,381 | 5.1 | — |
| David Warren Durant | Other | 394 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029