Riding profile
Dagenham and Rainham
The question
Dagenham and Rainham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Dagenham and Rainham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Margaret Mullane
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDagenham and Rainham | 32.6% | 27.2% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.3 | 21.7% +5.5 | 11.8% +4.0 | 18.9% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margaret Mullane Elected | Labour | 16,571 | 42.6 | — |
| Kevin Godfrey | Reform UK | 9,398 | 24.2 | — |
| Sam Holland | Conservative | 6,926 | 17.8 | — |
| Kim Arrowsmith | Green | 4,184 | 10.8 | — |
| Francesca Flack | Lib Dems | 1,033 | 2.7 | — |
| Terence London | Other | 755 | 1.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029