Riding profile

Dagenham and Rainham

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Dagenham and Rainham: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.8%
  • Labour 29.2%
  • Conservative 16.5%
  • Green 14.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereDagenham and Rainham 31.8%29.2%16.5%14.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.4 21.8% +7.3 19.3% −2.8 10.8% +3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Dagenham and Rainham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Margaret Mullane

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Margaret Mullane Elected Labour 16,571 42.6 —
Kevin Godfrey Reform UK 9,398 24.2 —
Sam Holland Conservative 6,926 17.8 —
Kim Arrowsmith Green 4,184 10.8 —
Francesca Flack Lib Dems 1,033 2.7 —
Terence London Other 755 1.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
120,583
Median age
35
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029