Riding profile

Old Bexley and Sidcup

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Old Bexley and Sidcup: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.9%
  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Labour 19.3%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.1%
  • Other 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereOld Bexley and Sidcup 32.9%31.3%19.3%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.5 19.3% +11.9 21.8% −2.5 10.8% −3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Old Bexley and Sidcup, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Louie French

Sits with Conservative

Since
2021-12-02
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louie French Elected Conservative 17,910 37.6
Edward Jones Labour 14,362 30.1
Maxine Fothergill Reform UK 10,384 21.8
Brad Davies Green 2,601 5.5
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett Lib Dems 1,927 4.0
Laurent Williams Other 251 0.5
Andrew Still Other 198 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,531
Median age
41
Employment rate
85.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029