Riding profile

Eltham and Chislehurst

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Eltham and Chislehurst: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Eltham and Chislehurst, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Clive Efford

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.4%
  • Reform UK 24.7%
  • Conservative 21.6%
  • Green 11.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.7%
  • Other 3.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereEltham and Chislehurst 30.4%24.7%21.6%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.8 25.3% −0.6 18.9% +2.8 11.8% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clive Efford Elected Labour 20,069 44.0
Charlie Davis Conservative 11,640 25.6
Mark George Simpson Reform UK 7,428 16.3
Sam Gabriel Green 3,079 6.8
Ulysse Abbate Lib Dems 2,423 5.3
Sean Ellis Stewart Other 356 0.8
Arnold Tarling Other 307 0.7
Christian Hacking Other 173 0.4
John Courtneidge Other 91 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,055
Median age
39
Employment rate
70.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029