Riding profile
Eltham and Chislehurst
The question
Eltham and Chislehurst: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEltham and Chislehurst | 30.9% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +9.0 | 25.4% +0.4 | 19.3% +3.1 | 10.8% −0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Eltham and Chislehurst, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Clive Efford
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Efford Elected | Labour | 20,069 | 44.0 | — |
| Charlie Davis | Conservative | 11,640 | 25.6 | — |
| Mark George Simpson | Reform UK | 7,428 | 16.3 | — |
| Sam Gabriel | Green | 3,079 | 6.8 | — |
| Ulysse Abbate | Lib Dems | 2,423 | 5.3 | — |
| Sean Ellis Stewart | Other | 356 | 0.8 | — |
| Arnold Tarling | Other | 307 | 0.7 | — |
| Christian Hacking | Other | 173 | 0.4 | — |
| John Courtneidge | Other | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029