Riding profile
Eltham and Chislehurst
The question
Eltham and Chislehurst: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Eltham and Chislehurst, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Clive Efford
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEltham and Chislehurst | 30.4% | 24.7% | 21.6% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.8 | 25.3% −0.6 | 18.9% +2.8 | 11.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clive Efford Elected | Labour | 20,069 | 44.0 | — |
| Charlie Davis | Conservative | 11,640 | 25.6 | — |
| Mark George Simpson | Reform UK | 7,428 | 16.3 | — |
| Sam Gabriel | Green | 3,079 | 6.8 | — |
| Ulysse Abbate | Lib Dems | 2,423 | 5.3 | — |
| Sean Ellis Stewart | Other | 356 | 0.8 | — |
| Arnold Tarling | Other | 307 | 0.7 | — |
| Christian Hacking | Other | 173 | 0.4 | — |
| John Courtneidge | Other | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029