Riding profile

Bromley and Biggin Hill

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Bromley and Biggin Hill: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bromley and Biggin Hill, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Peter Fortune

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Reform UK 25.4%
  • Labour 22.5%
  • Lib Dems 11.1%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereBromley and Biggin Hill 29.0%25.4%22.5%11.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +10.1 25.3% 21.7% +0.8 11.6% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Fortune Elected Conservative 15,929 34.0
Oana Olaru-Holmes Labour 15,627 33.4
Alan Cook Reform UK 8,203 17.5
Julie Ireland Lib Dems 4,352 9.3
Caroline Sandes Green 2,583 5.5
Karen Miller Other 94 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,689
Median age
41
Employment rate
80.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029