Riding profile

Lewisham North

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Lewisham North: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 44.1%
  • Green 29.3%
  • Reform UK 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 6.9%
  • Conservative 4.9%
  • Other 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Lib Dems
HereLewisham North 44.1%29.3%10.9%6.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +22.3 10.8% +18.5 25.4% −14.5 11.4% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Lewisham North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 44% vote share, against 29% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vicky Foxcroft

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
35.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vicky Foxcroft Elected Labour 25,467 57.7 —
Adam Pugh Green 9,685 21.9 —
Jean Branch Lib Dems 3,284 7.4 —
Nupur Majumdar Conservative 2,701 6.1 —
Edward Powell Reform UK 2,000 4.5 —
Mian Akbar Other 457 1.0 —
Julia Tilford Other 243 0.6 —
Oliver Snelling Other 211 0.5 —
John Lloyd Other 119 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,888
Median age
33
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029