Riding profile

Lewisham East

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Lewisham East: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 42.6%
  • Green 20.9%
  • Reform UK 15.8%
  • Conservative 9.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 4.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereLewisham East 42.6%20.9%15.8%9.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +20.8 10.8% +10.1 25.4% −9.6 19.3% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Lewisham East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 43% vote share, against 21% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Janet Daby

Sits with Labour

Since
2018-06-14
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
44.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-22.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Janet Daby Elected Labour 23,646 58.2 —
Mike Herron Green 5,573 13.7 —
Louise Brice Conservative 4,401 10.8 —
Ruth Handyside Reform UK 3,469 8.5 —
Callum Littlemore Lib Dems 2,471 6.1 —
Steph Koffi Other 577 1.4 —
Maureen Martin Other 404 1.0 —
Richard Galloway Other 96 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,182
Median age
37
Employment rate
70.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029