Riding profile

Lewisham East

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Lewisham East: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Lewisham East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 42% vote share, against 23% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Janet Daby

Sits with Labour

Since
2018-06-14
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.9%
  • Green 23.2%
  • Reform UK 15.5%
  • Conservative 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 7.6%
  • Other 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereLewisham East 41.9%23.2%15.5%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +20.3 11.8% +11.4 25.3% −9.8 18.9% −10.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
44.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Janet Daby Elected Labour 23,646 58.2
Mike Herron Green 5,573 13.7
Louise Brice Conservative 4,401 10.8
Ruth Handyside Reform UK 3,469 8.5
Callum Littlemore Lib Dems 2,471 6.1
Steph Koffi Other 577 1.4
Maureen Martin Other 404 1.0
Richard Galloway Other 96 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,182
Median age
37
Employment rate
70.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029