Riding profile

Beckenham and Penge

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Beckenham and Penge: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.5%
  • Conservative 21.4%
  • Reform UK 19.6%
  • Green 10.8%
  • Lib Dems 10.3%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereBeckenham and Penge 36.5%21.4%19.6%10.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.7 19.3% +2.1 25.4% −5.8 10.8%

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Beckenham and Penge, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 37% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Liam Conlon

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
24.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Liam Conlon Elected Labour 25,753 49.3 —
Hannah Gray Conservative 12,848 24.6 —
Edward Apostolides Reform UK 5,355 10.3 —
Chloe-Jane Ross Lib Dems 4,436 8.5 —
Ruth Fabricant Green 3,830 7.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,866
Median age
40
Employment rate
73.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029