Riding profile

Croydon West

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Croydon West: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Croydon West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 41% vote share, against 15% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 41.0%
  • Reform UK 15.2%
  • Green 14.5%
  • Conservative 13.5%
  • Lib Dems 11.0%
  • Other 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereCroydon West 41.0%15.2%14.5%13.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +19.4 25.3% −10.1 11.8% +2.7 18.9% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
37.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Jones Elected Labour 20,612 54.1
Simon Fox Conservative 6,386 16.8
Ria Patel Green 3,851 10.1
Jahir Hussain Lib Dems 3,667 9.6
Vinayak Malhotra Reform UK 2,148 5.6
Ahsan Ullah Other 708 1.9
Donna Murray-Turner Other 503 1.3
April Ashley Other 247 0.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
123,850
Median age
34
Employment rate
76.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029