Riding profile

Croydon West

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Croydon West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.6%
  • Reform UK 15.5%
  • Conservative 15.1%
  • Green 13.7%
  • Lib Dems 9.5%
  • Other 5.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereCroydon West 40.6%15.5%15.1%13.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +18.8 25.4% −9.8 19.3% −4.2 10.8% +2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Croydon West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 41% vote share, against 16% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Jones

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
37.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Jones Elected Labour 20,612 54.1 —
Simon Fox Conservative 6,386 16.8 —
Ria Patel Green 3,851 10.1 —
Jahir Hussain Lib Dems 3,667 9.6 —
Vinayak Malhotra Reform UK 2,148 5.6 —
Ahsan Ullah Other 708 1.9 —
Donna Murray-Turner Other 503 1.3 —
April Ashley Other 247 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
123,850
Median age
34
Employment rate
76.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029