Riding profile
Croydon South
The question
Croydon South: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Croydon South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Philp
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCroydon South | 34.6% | 25.0% | 18.2% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +15.7 | 21.7% +3.4 | 25.3% −7.1 | 11.8% −2.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Philp Elected | Conservative | 19,757 | 40.0 | — |
| Ben Taylor | Labour | 17,444 | 35.3 | — |
| Richard Howard | Lib Dems | 4,384 | 8.9 | — |
| Bob Bromley | Reform UK | 4,149 | 8.4 | — |
| Elaine Garrod | Green | 2,859 | 5.8 | — |
| Kulsum Hussin | Other | 612 | 1.2 | — |
| Mark Samuel | Other | 173 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029