Riding profile
Carshalton and Wallington
The question
Carshalton and Wallington: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCarshalton and Wallington | 39.2% | 22.4% | 20.8% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +27.9 | 25.4% −2.9 | 19.3% +1.5 | 21.8% −13.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Carshalton and Wallington, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bobby Dean
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dean Elected | Lib Dems | 20,126 | 43.1 | — |
| Elliot Colburn | Conservative | 12,221 | 26.2 | — |
| Hersh Thaker | Labour | 6,108 | 13.1 | — |
| Elizabeth Cooper | Reform UK | 5,941 | 12.7 | — |
| Tracey Hague | Green | 1,517 | 3.3 | — |
| Atif Abdul Rashid | Other | 441 | 0.9 | — |
| Ashley Dickenson | Other | 231 | 0.5 | — |
| Steve Kelleher | Other | 85 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029