Riding profile

Mitcham and Morden

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Mitcham and Morden: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Mitcham and Morden, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 40% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dame Siobhain McDonagh

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 40.2%
  • Reform UK 17.6%
  • Green 16.8%
  • Conservative 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 9.9%
  • Other 3.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereMitcham and Morden 40.2%17.6%16.8%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +18.5 25.3% −7.7 11.8% +5.0 18.9% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
41.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Siobhain McDonagh Elected Labour 25,085 55.4
Ellie Cox Conservative 6,324 14.0
Pippa Maslin Green 4,635 10.2
Ruth Price Reform UK 4,135 9.1
Jenifer Gould Lib Dems 3,622 8.0
Mehmood Jamshed Other 1,091 2.4
Desmond Coke Other 363 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
123,572
Median age
37
Employment rate
79.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029