Riding profile
Mitcham and Morden
The question
Mitcham and Morden: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMitcham and Morden | 40.9% | 18.9% | 13.5% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +19.1 | 25.4% −6.5 | 10.8% +2.7 | 19.3% −6.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Mitcham and Morden, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 41% vote share, against 19% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dame Siobhain McDonagh
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siobhain McDonagh Elected | Labour | 25,085 | 55.4 | — |
| Ellie Cox | Conservative | 6,324 | 14.0 | — |
| Pippa Maslin | Green | 4,635 | 10.2 | — |
| Ruth Price | Reform UK | 4,135 | 9.1 | — |
| Jenifer Gould | Lib Dems | 3,622 | 8.0 | — |
| Mehmood Jamshed | Other | 1,091 | 2.4 | — |
| Desmond Coke | Other | 363 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029